Spatiotemporal analysis of the linkage between environmental degradation and flood susceptibility in an urban tropical wetland ecosystem
This study quantifies the ecological decline of the Akkulam-Veli wetland system in Thiruvananthapuram, India, from 1995 to 2023 using multi-temporal satellite imagery. The analysis reveals an 81% reduction in wetland area, shrinking from 12.78 to 2.38 square kilometers due to infrastructure and technology park expansions, alongside a drop in adjacent hillock elevations from 60 to 52 meters. Zone-wise regression analysis confirms a significant positive correlation between this wetland loss and flood overlap percentages, validated by severe inundation events in October 2023.
Why it matters — It provides empirical, long-term evidence linking specific local infrastructure projects and hillock excavation to the direct loss of natural retention basins and heightened urban flood susceptibility. This establishes a quantitative basis for shifting local urban planning from reactive disaster response to proactive, ecosystem-based 'Sponge City' frameworks.
Caveat: The regression analysis and flood validation are focused on a single wetland ecosystem in one tropical city, which may limit direct generalizability to other urban topographies.
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