Understanding the effectiveness of active travel policy portfolios with agent-based modelling
This study simulated active travel policies in the Tyne and Wear region of England using the MATSim agent-based transport framework. The simulation tested economic incentives, car penalties, and infrastructure changes, finding that a £0.15/km active travel subsidy reduced car use by 7 percentage points and increased active modes by 10 percentage points, while a £2.50 daily car charge reduced car use by 14 percentage points. Combining these economic policies with cycle path improvements yielded the greatest shifts, reducing car use by up to 18 percentage points and increasing active travel by up to 22 percentage points.
Why it matters — It quantifies the compounding benefits of combining behavioral incentives with physical infrastructure improvements, providing concrete policy-mix scenarios for local authorities aiming to meet transport decarbonization targets.
Caveat: The findings are based on simulated agent behaviors within a computational model of a single English region rather than observed empirical outcomes.