Application of a GA-BPNN model with Bayesian updating mechanism for pavement quality index (PQI) prediction
The study developed a hybrid model combining a Genetic Algorithm-optimized Backpropagation Neural Network (GA-BPNN) with Bayesian updating to predict the Pavement Quality Index (PQI). The model was trained on pavement performance data collected via a multi-functional road condition assessment system across five major Beijing highways (G4, G6, G7, S15, G106) from 2008 to 2021, and dynamically updated using 2022 inspection data.
Why it matters — By integrating Bayesian inference, the model introduces a self-learning mechanism that can continuously update its predictions with new, small-sample inspection data, overcoming the static limitations and poor uncertainty quantification of traditional neural networks in infrastructure maintenance.
Caveat: The model's performance and updating mechanism were validated using data from only five specific highway corridors within a single metropolitan region.
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives · doi