The complex relationship between anti-immigrant sentiment and exposure in the Netherlands
This study analyzed the relationship between immigrant exposure and anti-immigrant sentiment across the Netherlands using national grid data and voting results from the 2021 and 2023 national elections. Using a novel exposure indicator adapted from residential segregation metrics, the analysis found that while municipalities and neighborhoods with higher overall immigrant exposure had lower right-wing vote shares in 2023, areas experiencing rapid increases in immigrant exposure between 2021 and 2023 showed a reversal, with rising right-wing vote shares. The research also identified that wealth and inequality levels influence these voting dynamics at high exposure thresholds.
Why it matters — It demonstrates that the spatial relationship between immigrant presence and political backlash is dynamic rather than static, revealing an 'overexposure effect' where rapid demographic change triggers right-wing voting shifts even if highly diverse areas remain generally less right-wing.
Caveat: The study relies on right-wing voting outcomes as a proxy for anti-immigrant sentiment, which may capture other political or economic grievances.