A comparative machine learning approach to analyze the non-linear dynamics of the built environment in active travel behavior
This study evaluated a logistic regression model alongside seven machine learning algorithms to analyze how built environment characteristics influence active travel choices in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region. The Gradient Boosting Decision Trees model performed best, achieving 64% accuracy and an AUC of 0.70 for work trips, and revealed that built environment features hold more predictive power (38% for work and 48% for non-work trips) than socio-demographic factors. Non-linear analysis identified specific threshold ranges where active travel likelihood peaks, including proximity within 200 meters of commercial areas, 500 meters of bus stops, intersection densities exceeding 400 per square kilometer, and a land-use entropy index between 0.7 and 0.8.
Why it matters — It establishes precise, non-linear threshold bands for built environment design in a high-density Global South megacity, replacing general planning assumptions with actionable, locally calibrated spatial metrics for walkability.