Data-driven investigation of ship fuel consumption integrating causal inference and hierarchical analysis
The study develops a data-driven framework combining multi-source data fusion, causal discovery via a direct linear non-gaussian acyclic model, and double machine learning with causal forests to analyze ship fuel consumption. Testing under an expanded directed acyclic graph specification revealed that daily sailing hours has the strongest positive conditional effect on fuel consumption with an Average Treatment Effect (ATE) of 2.058, followed by main engine RPM with an ATE of 0.268. Interpretive structural modelling was then used to decompose these directional dependencies into hierarchical transmission levels.
Why it matters — It establishes a causal, graph-informed method to isolate and rank the direct and indirect drivers of maritime fuel consumption, moving beyond simple predictive correlations to support structured energy management decisions.
Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · doi · code