Agent-based modelling of urban non-exhaust emissions reveals the limits of fleet electrification
An agent-based model of the Phibsborough junction in Dublin, calibrated with street-level Google Air View data, was developed to simulate non-exhaust traffic emissions. The model evaluated passenger-preserving policies, finding that a 50% electric vehicle fleet only reduces ultrafine particles (UFP) by 19% if regenerative braking is used, while increasing PM2.5 by 1% to 5% due to heavier vehicle mass. In contrast, shifting 50% of trips to buses yielded the largest reductions of 30% for UFP and 34% for PM2.5, while a 30 km/h speed limit cut UFP by 16.5% regardless of fleet composition.
Why it matters — The study demonstrates that vehicle electrification is insufficient on its own to solve traffic-related particulate pollution, proving that traffic dynamics and modal shifts to public transit are more effective levers for reducing non-exhaust emissions than changing fuel types.
Caveat: The model's calibration assumes that frequent rainfall suppresses road-surface wear and resuspended dust, meaning the findings may not directly apply to drier climates where these emission channels remain active.
Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment · pdf · doi