Predicting barge tow size on inland waterways using vessel trajectory-derived features: proof of concept
This proof-of-concept study predicts the number of barges in a tow configuration by analyzing 39 trajectory features derived from Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders on towing vessels. Using high-resolution satellite imagery along the Lower Mississippi River to label 26 observed tow instances, the researchers trained six regression models, finding that Poisson and support vector regressors achieved the lowest mean absolute errors of 1.920 and 1.922 barges, respectively. The most predictive features across the models were course entropy and the interaction between trip duration and speed variability.
Why it matters — It demonstrates that barge fleet sizes can be estimated in near real-time from the movement patterns of the towing vessel alone, offering a potential way to bypass the lack of tracking transponders on individual cargo barges for lock and berth scheduling.
Caveat: The predictive models were trained and validated on an extremely small sample size of 26 total observations along a single river corridor.
Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives · doi