Predicting surface urban heat island intensity and its drivers using machine learning and spatial XAI for achieving SDG-11
The study modeled Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) intensity in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region from 2002 to 2024 using Google Earth Engine and four machine learning algorithms. LightGBM performed best with a test R² of 0.86 and an RMSE of 1.49 °C, while spatial cross-validation yielded a robust R² of 0.77 to 0.78. Explainable AI (XAI) and a novel spatial XAI model identified built-up intensity, bare land, night-time lights, and population density as the primary positive drivers of heat intensity, which shifted from 13.69% low-intensity coverage in 2002 to 6.31% in 2024.
Why it matters — It introduces a spatial explainable AI approach that maps exactly where and how different urban features drive heat accumulation across a metropolitan area. This shifts urban heat mitigation from uniform, city-wide policies to targeted, location-specific interventions based on localized driver patterns.
Caveat: The predictive models and spatial XAI relationships were developed and tested solely within a single metropolitan region, which may limit direct transferability to cities with different climatic or morphological characteristics.