Spatiotemporal dynamics of coastal urbanization and future inundation risk in the krishna godavari delta
This study quantified land use changes and urban sprawl in Kakinada, India, from 1990 to 2022 using Landsat imagery, Random Forest classification, and Shannon entropy. The built-up area expanded from 5.87% to 15.84% over this period, encroaching on vegetation and cropland. Integrating FABDEM elevation data with IPCC AR6 sea-level rise scenarios, the researchers modeled future inundation, finding that a 1-meter rise threatens 0.31 square kilometers of built-up area, while an extreme 7-meter surge exposes 43.12 square kilometers of urban footprint.
Why it matters — It measures how industrial-driven sprawl is actively pushing urban development into low-elevation coastal zones, quantifying the direct link between historical expansion patterns and future climate vulnerability in a rapidly growing deltaic port city.
Caveat: The inundation modeling relies on a modified bathtub approach, which may not fully capture complex hydrodynamic processes during actual storm surge events.