Popularity Trajectories and Mixing Patterns of Urban Venues in Two European Cities
Using 5.5 years of Foursquare data covering roughly 10,000 venues in London and Barcelona, six distinct popularity trajectories emerged across both locations: Fall, Rise, Rise & Fall, Steady, Ephemeral, and Underdogs. Deprivation and population density fail to predict which trajectory a venue follows, but venues sharing the same trajectory cluster spatially within 200 to 600 meters. A qualitative comparison of gentrifying districts in both cities further showed that divergent neighborhood histories produce contrasting venue performance patterns despite similar socioeconomic profiles.
Why it matters — This refutes the common assumption that neighborhood-level wealth and demographic density govern individual venue success, showing instead that commercial vitality is driven by block-level spatial proximity and localized gentrification histories.
Caveat: The study relies on Foursquare location check-in data, which reflects the behavior of a self-selected platform user base rather than total foot traffic.